What It Means for Your Business
In recent weeks, the Bank of England have cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25% and the government has announced new trade deals with India, the US and the EU. Let’s see what these news items can tell us about the latest developments in the economy.
Split opinions
At its meeting to discuss the Bank Rate, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5-4 to reduce it to 4.25%. Two of the opposing members voted for reducing the rate to 4.0%, while the remaining two voted for keeping the rate at 4.5%.
This represents a wide range of opinion, which is perhaps to be expected in view of the uncertainty both domestically and globally in recent months. It could suggest that your guess is as good as ours on what direction the economy will take in the coming months.
Inflation and growth
At 3.5% in April (up from 2.6% in March), inflation is well above the Bank’s target of 2%. The April inflation figures, which were not released until after the Bank’s decision, represent the highest annual inflation rate in more than a year.
The increase was largely driven by higher water, gas and electricity bills, many of which rose on 1 April. Water and sewerage prices alone increased by over 26%, the sharpest rise in nearly four decades.
For businesses, April also brought higher running costs, including the rise in the National Minimum Wage and an increase in employer National Insurance contributions, both of which are believed to have contributed to a rise in services inflation, which reached 5.4%.
Core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – also came in higher than expected, suggesting price pressures are more widespread than a few short-term changes.
Before April’s figures, many were expecting two further interest rate cuts this year. However, some economists now believe only one may happen, with the Bank likely to take a more cautious approach.
Trade news: Progress, but no big breakthrough
Recent trade deals with India, the US and the EU have captured headlines and are positive news. However, there are still a lot of loose ends. Many businesses won’t see immediate changes, and the finer details still need to be worked out.
What this means for business owners
You might be wondering how all this affects you and your business day to day. Here’s the takeaway:
Borrowing costs may ease a little – If you have loans or overdrafts tied to the base rate, the interest may drop slightly. But banks don’t always pass on the full cut straight away.
Exporters may see new opportunities –If you’re selling to the US, EU or India or you’re considering it, the new agreements could make a difference. But you may need to await the fine print to see how things are actually going to work out.
Consumer confidence may remain shaky – While news of trade deals is positive, continuing high inflation may make shoppers less comfortable about spending.
Keep an eye on costs and planning – The economy is still unpredictable. While interest rates are lower, energy costs and trade uncertainties mean it’s still worth budgeting cautiously.
The interest rate cut is a bit of good news, but the overall message seems to be that we’re not out of the woods yet.
See HMRC’s guidance here.
